“We have more sand on the beach today,” Ken Willson of Coastal Protection Engineering (CPE) told the Town Council at its Aug. 5 meeting., “than we did at the completion” of the beach nourishment project three years ago.
According to Mr. Willson, the “cumulative” naturally gained sand volume on the Southern Shores beaches—discounting any effect from the beach nourishment the Town performed in 2022—“is greater than what we had intended to place there in 2022.”
In other words, Nature surpassed the goal of the dredging, making it apparently unnecessary.*
And yet, despite Mr. Willson’s encouraging update, the Town Council unanimously voted to commit more public funds ($111,406) to maintaining the Town’s eligibility for participating in a 2027 nourishment project with Duck, Kitty Hawk, and Kill Devil Hills, rather than to opt out.
Mr. Willson labeled the natural “accretion”—i.e., deposition or accumulation—of sand, which he said occurred over three consecutive years (2021-23), “an anomaly.”
But to speak of an anomaly within the coastal environment, we believe, is to be misleading.
A fundamental principle in “How The Beach Works 101” is that change is the only constant. The coastal environment is dynamic, filled with energy and constantly changing.
The Beacon has written extensively about coastal dynamics and beach nourishment since we started publishing in 2018. We refer you to our Special Report of Jan. 26, 2021, in which we analyze short-term beach data, explain the basics of beach nourishment, and offer a primer in “How The Beach Works 101.”
As all of the experts we interviewed told us, there is seasonal variability in “how the beach works,” because of changes in wind and wave energy; despite the fluctuations, however, the beach maintains an equilibrium.
Passing hurricanes and other storms, such as Erin, may push the sand off-shore, but it returns. (Please read our Special Report!)
Beach data obtained on a given day about the shoreline changes and the volume of sand are just a “snapshot.” On another day, they will be different.
Contrary to what many people may think, the naked eye is not a good judge of the state of the beach. Not only is much of what is called the beach “profile” under water, there are radical changes going on in the dry-sand area that the eye cannot detect.
As Mr. Willson would say, let’s “take a deeper dive” into the situation.
DESPITE HEALTHY STATISTICS, WILLSON’S ‘PROJECTIONS’ TREND NEGATIVELY
Duck, Kitty Hawk, and Kill Devil Hills, with whom Southern Shores cooperated in the 2022-23 beach nourishment project, have already signed contracts with CPE for beach nourishment in 2027, Mr. Willson said, and design engineering work has begun.
These towns are considering extending out their 2027 project from five years to six or seven years, he added, so they would not nourish again until 2033 or 2034.
Both Kitty Hawk and Kill Devil Hills “have higher erosion rates” than Southern Shores, Mr. Willson acknowledged—and they always have, historically, as has Duck. In contrast, the consultant described the Southern Shores “numbers” as “healthy.”
Mr. Willson presented summary data from the beach surveying that CPE conducted in Southern Shores in early June; it is paid to perform annual surveys.
CPE measures shoreline and sand volume changes at 23 profile stations, which are located every 1,000 feet on the Town’s 3.7-mile coastline. At the Aug. 5 meeting, Mr. Willson gave only average measurements for the Northern, Central and Southern sections of the beach. He did not give measurements from each profile station. A full report is yet to come.
The Northern Section runs from 4th Avenue north to the Duck town line; the Central Section is from 4th Avenue south to about 500 feet south of the Chicahauk Trail beach access; and the Southern Section includes the remaining shoreline south to the Kitty Hawk town line.
From 2022 to 2025, Mr. Willson showed, the Northern Section gained 165,300 cubic yards of sand; the Central Section gained 96,200 cubic yards; and the Southern Section gained 72,400 cubic yards, for a total increase of 333,900 cubic yards—over the 1,048,400 cubic yards already in place in 2022.
These statistics do not support the Town’s participation in the 2027 project or its scheduling of another project until a year that cannot yet be determined—if ever.
But the Town Council did not entertain that possibility, so captivated/buffaloed/bewildered?? were the members by Mr. Willson’s “projections” out to 2034 that show a steady loss of sand year-by-year.
Despite the healthy accretion of sand in the Southern Shores beach profile, which extends from the dunes and vegetation line east to a water depth just beyond where the largest waves break, Mr. Willson chose to project out years of steady erosion because the past two beach surveys have shown 1) stabilization from 2023 to 2024; and 2) a slight negative effect from 2024 to 2025.
He did not project the amount of sand accretion that would occur naturally on the Southern Shores shoreline in the past five years, and he cannot predict how much more accretion will occur in the next five years.
We “gain[ed] sand faster in the previous five years than in the five years [before the project],” Mr. Willson said, and in “2022, there was more sand in the system than in 2017.”
That he nonetheless forecasts a steady erosion rate starting this year and calls it a “trend” is misleading.
That he illustrates this trend on a graph with a heavy black horizontal line, which supposedly represents the sand volume needed to protect the Town beaches from a “design-level storm,” which is one similar to Hurricane Isabel, can only confuse you. (Look at the videotape. We cannot give this graph justice.)
So why did the Town Council immediately buy into Mr. Willson’s projections? Are our elected officials running scared or are they just confused?
At least two Town Council members appeared poised to authorize spending $6 million to $8 million for an unnecessary 2027 project, in which Southern Shores would share mobilization costs with Duck, Kitty Hawk, and Kill Devil Hills, just to avoid spending theoretically “astronomical” costs if the Town theoretically were to go it alone.
We cannot imagine a scenario, theoretically or otherwise, in which the Town would ever have to do beach nourishment alone. The Southern Shores shoreline is too stable for such a desperate measure.
Mr. Willson’s projections are not facts. They are speculations designed, as far as we can tell, to induce the Town Council to approve a 2027 project.
Mayor Elizabeth Morey asked if Southern Shores could do a 2027 project on a “smaller scale” than the one performed in 2022-23.
Mr. Willson answered, “Yes, but,” the “but” being that there is “a minimum amount of sand that the big dredges put down efficiently,” so his reply was incomplete, but “trended” negatively.
SOUTHERN SHORES HAS A MORE STABLE SHORELINE
Southern Shores has always had a more stable shoreline than other nearby beach towns and was the last of the towns from Duck in the north to Nags Head in the south to add sand to its entire shoreline. It has a history of low long-term average erosion rates.
One caveat: The area in Southern Shores near the Kitty Hawk Pier has long been characterized by high erosion. The Town nourished the beach at Pelican Watch in 2017, piggybacking on to Kitty Hawk’s beach nourishment project.
According to coastal engineer and erosion specialist Spencer Rogers, formerly of UNC-Wilmington’s Center for Marine Science, Southern Shores has not been directly hit by a severe storm since the Ash Wednesday storm of 1962, which was an “Extreme Nor’easter” that took out the old Sea Ranch Hotel at the current site of Pelican Watch.
Since this March 1962 event, no buildings in Southern Shores have been destroyed or even threatened by erosion. This makes Southern Shores unique among Dare beach towns.
Today, the dunes are high and, thanks to Southern Shores homeowner Len Schmitz and other dedicated volunteers, covered with protective beach grass and sand fences. (See photo above.)
The problem for our neighboring towns is, if Southern Shores opts out of the 2027 project, the three of them would have to pay one-third, rather than one-quarter, of the mobilization costs, which Mr. Willson estimated at $8 million.
We would have liked to have heard the Town Council comment on CPE’s data, on the allegedly “anomalous” three-year period of accretion, on Mr. Willson’s specious projections, on anything other than potential cost, but no one did.
To the public’s detriment, Mayor Pro Tem Matt Neal, who is usually well-prepared, said the questions he had for Mr. Willson were answered by the consultant in a private meeting the day before.
Mr. Willson advised the Town Council that it can make a final decision about participating in the 2027 beach nourishment project as late as May-June 2026, presumably when CPE does its next beach survey.
If history is any indication, the Council will delay until then.
In the meantime, the Town Council is maintaining the Town’s “eligibility” for the project—i.e., keeping its options open—by committing funds for the payment of design and permitting tasks that must be done now. It unanimously approved allocating $111,406 to the amount of money it has already committed, bringing the total to about $134,000.
When Councilwoman Paula Sherlock asked where the money was coming from for the additional $111,406, Town Manager Cliff Ogburn replied: “The Beach Nourishment Capital Reserve Fund.” This answer seemed to reassure Ms. Sherlock and other Council members, even though this money is still taxpayer money that could be saved, rather than spent now.
We strongly encourage all property owners in Southern Shores to inform themselves if they want to ensure that smart and responsible decisions are made, going forward.
THE 2022 PROJECT CREATED ‘AN EIGHT-FOOT-DEEP TROUGH’
During public comments on Aug. 5, Gard Skinner, who has lived with his family in Southern Shores for 23 years, identified significant concerns associated with the 2022-23 beach nourishment project and any future nourishment.
Beach nourishment, he said, “changed the behavior of the near-shore zone.”
Describing himself as a “regular beach user” and surfer who “ran the beach for years, every morning,” he warned that “[there is] no shallow near-shore zone any more.”
Beach nourishment deepened the “channel” between the water line on the beach—the level of the tide—and the first sand bar, he said. It is now an “8-foot-deep trough.”
This channel or trough used to be thigh- or waist-deep, Mr. Skinner said, but now it is over people’s heads, posing a challenge to children and other people who might just want to “play” or splash around in the shallow surf.
With such a “steep dropoff,” he said, “Kids can’t boogie board any more,” and more of them are wearing life jackets.
There have been no surf lessons in Southern Shores since beach nourishment occurred, he added, and the past two surfing throwdowns “have been a mess.” (The Throwdown Surf Classic contest takes place on the Chicahauk Beach in September.)
If you “pile more sand down there, we’re going to move the water line farther from the dune, so we’ll be in even deeper water. . . ,” he said, perhaps twice as deep.
“Don’t pile more dry sand” on the beach, Mr. Skinner beseeched the Town Council.
(*See The Beacon, 12/19/23: “Southern Shores Beaches Gain Nearly 400,000 Cubic Yards in Sand in Past Year—From Natural Accretion, Not Beach Nourishment, Consultant Tells Town Council. Was 2022 Fill Project Necessary?”)
THE NEXT TOWN COUNCIL MEETING IS TUESDAY, SEPT. 2, at 5:30 p.m., in the Pitts Center. We will publish a preview of the agenda.
By Ann G. Sjoerdsma, The Southern Shores Beacon, 8/24/25
The Southern Shores Beacon 