(Breaking news: Return day for non-resident property owners appears to be Thursday. See below.)

This year the Southern Shores Civic Assn. is celebrating Earth Day, which is tomorrow, by holding a weeklong beach cleanup during what it has proclaimed Earth Week.

The SSCA is asking its members and other interested volunteers to help clear its beach crossovers and nearby beaches of debris, starting tomorrow, the 50^th anniversary of the first Earth Day, and continuing through Wednesday, April 29.

Since the last nor’easter, the SSCA Board of Director writes in an email sent to members, “sand-fencing debris and sundry items” have washed up on the beach near the crossovers. According to the release, the crossovers at the Hillcrest Beach, Purple Martin Lane, and Second Avenue “have more significant debris than others.”

SSCA Volunteer/Social Coordinator Emily Gould told The Beacon that waste bags will be provided for volunteers at the Hillcrest Beach in the vacant port-a-john enclosure; at the Purple Martin crossover at the bench on the viewing deck; and at the Second Avenue crossover at the benches on the viewing deck.

At all other crossovers, Ms. Gould asks that you BYOB, bring your own bags, although some of the debris is so large and bulky that a bag will not accommodate it.

Please email Ms. Gould at ee.karr785@gmail.com with the beach area you wish to visit and when you expect to clean up there.

SSCA would like you to place the debris on either side of a crossover, at its middle section, or at the roadside, to the south of a crossover.

When you have completed your cleanup, Ms. Gould asks that you let her know the crossover address where you have deposited the debris.

Ms. Gould also would like you to have a picture taken of yourself (or to take a selfie) with the trash collected and send it to her so that you can be properly recognized and thanked for your efforts.

Perhaps the non-resident Southern Shores property owners, who are expected to be able to access Dare County starting Thursday, will join us in celebrating this beautiful environment that we share and in getting some exercise and fresh air during these difficult times.

We say “expected to” because OBX Today is reporting that the Currituck County Board of Commissioners voted yesterday to allow non-resident property owners to access Corolla, starting Thursday, and they cannot get to Corolla without going through Dare County—as residents in Southern Shores know only too well. The Dare County Control Group will announce the reentry plan for Dare County later today.

OBX Today also reports that the tentative date selected by the Currituck Board for return of visitors is May 15. Please check back with The Beacon this afternoon for a report on the Dare County plan.

Ann G. Sjoerdsma, 4/21/20

THIS JUST IN . . . The Dare County Control Group has asked staff to prepare a plan to “address the lifting of restrictions on entry to Dare County while ensuring the safety of our community,” according to today’s emergency bulletin.

The County’s plan will be released tomorrow.

The County Group’s decision was made “with careful consideration of the science, trends, data and resource availability,” according to Bulletin No. 46, which was issued at 1 p.m. today.

No new COVID-19 cases have been reported in Dare County.

See the bulletin at https://www.darenc.com/Home/Components/News/News/6162/1483.

The Beacon, 4/20/20

Tomorrow morning you will find out about the character, foresight, flexibility, and even the sense of empathy of the five people you have elected to serve on the Southern Shores Town Council when they sit in judgment on the next fiscal year’s budget.

The Town Council will meet at the Pitts Center tomorrow at 9 a.m. for its one and only scheduled budget workshop session. The Town meeting notice advises that this will be a videoconference, and you may join via Zoom or listen by telephone. A maximum of 10 people are permitted to gather in the Pitts Center.

See the electronic-participation instructions at https://www.southernshores-nc.gov/southern-shores-town-council-workshop-meeting-tuesday-april-21-2020-900-a-m/southern-shores-notice-electronic-participation-april-21-2020/

Interim Town Manager/Budget Officer Wes Haskett and Finance Officer Bonnie Swain have submitted a draft budget that shows a deficit of $348,853, with revenues projected to be $5,953,243, and anticipated expenses to be $6,302,096.

This is basically with no growth—except for SSVFD fire services increasing by an estimated $80,000—but with no major cuts in expenses, either.

Is this budget realistic? Unduly optimistic? Not optimistic enough?

Mr. Haskett told The Beacon that he plans to submit a balanced annual operating budget to the Council at its May 5 meeting and to ask for a public hearing on June 1, long past the time that the five Council minds will have been made up.

Mr. Haskett is obligated by N.C. law to submit a balanced budget, but he is not obligated by law to submit one as early as May 5. That is his choice.

State law requires a municipal budget officer to submit the budget, along with a budget message, to the governing board no later than June 1; and the submission need not be at a formal meeting. (See N.C. Gen. Stat. sec. 159-11(b).)

So, if you wish to have a voice in your immediate financial future, and in any decision-making about which Southern Shores town services are considered “essential,” and which projects are deserving of funding, email your comments before tomorrow’s meeting to Town Clerk Sheila Kane at skane@southernshores-nc.gov, with the subject line, “Public Comment April 21, 2020.”

Your comments must be limited to three minutes, when read aloud. You also may comment for up to three minutes live via the chat feature on Zoom.

Here is tomorrow’s meeting agenda: https://www.southernshores-nc.gov/wp-content/uploads/minutes-agendas-newsletters/Agendas_2020-04-21.pdf

The meeting packet (budget is on pp. 3-17): https://www.southernshores-nc.gov/wp-content/uploads/minutes-agendas-newsletters/Meeting-Packet_2020-04-21.pdf

For more background, see The Beacon’s discussion of the proposed budget on 4/16/20.

UNCERTAIN FUTURE, REVENUES

No one knows what the future of the new coronavirus that causes the potentially fatal COVID-19 will be. Not even elite physician-scientists like Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

After the current acute phase of this unpredictable severe respiratory disease subsides, will we see it return in a second wave and maybe a third wave? If so, when? September? October? And when it does subside, how will we live? What restrictions will be imposed on us and on our visitors?

Careful public-health planning in tourist areas, where the population is dense—and where the health-care services and hospital capacity may be limited—will be vital to avoiding a resurgence of COVID-19.

The Outer Banks summer vacation season remains uncertain. Considering the trend of COVID-19 cases in North Carolina, it seems unlikely that any vacation home rentals will occur before Memorial Day, but no one has a crystal ball.

Major N.C. newspapers are reporting today that cases in the state continue to double every 12 days. The doubling rate is a key factor for state government officials to consider in deciding when to relax the social restrictions that have been credited for slowing the spread of COVID-19.

Epidemiologists say that no matter what a state’s or a community’s doubling time is, the key is seeing it get longer: North Carolina’s doubling rate, although long, has been steady.

Epidemiologists also warn that case counts may not be the most reliable indicator of how the COVID-19 outbreak is spreading because testing has been hindered by a lack of available tests, swabs, and protective equipment, and by limited laboratory capacity.

With so many unknowns confronting them, how will the five Town Council members assess the unbalanced proposed fiscal year 2020-21 budget that the Town staff have presented, with no recommendations on how to balance it?

At least, Mr. Haskett and Ms. Swain offered no recommendations in the April 15 memorandum that they sent to the Council with the draft budget–electing instead to defer entirely to the Town Council. Perhaps they actually will share some at tomorrow’s meeting.

SOME OF THE KEY NUMBERS

Nearly one-third of the Town’s projected FY 2020-21 revenues are occupancy, sales, and land-transfer taxes.

Mr. Haskett and Ms. Swain have reduced the total for these taxes in the next fiscal year, compared to the current fiscal-year total, by roughly $219,500. Is that enough? Is that realistic? Is the reduction a worst-case scenario? (See The Beacon, 4/16/20, for their monthly percentage reductions.)

Occupancy taxes, in particular, have been strong for Southern Shores in recent years–so strong that the town has had a surplus in revenues that has been carried over to the next fiscal year.

Dare County assesses a 6 percent occupancy tax and distributes a portion of half of these proceeds to Duck, Southern Shores, Kitty Hawk, Kill Devil Hills, Nags Head, and Manteo, in “proportion to the amount of ad valorem tax levied by each town in the preceding fiscal year.” See Dare County Occupancy Tax at https://www.darenc.com/departments/tax-department/occupancy-tax

Ad valorem (real-estate) taxes constitute 52 percent of all projected revenues in Southern Shores in FY 2020-21. In FY 2019-20, those taxes made up 46 percent of all revenues.

Should taxpayers be asked to shoulder more budgetary expenses before the Town significantly tightens its belt?

As you all know, Dare County conducted a property reappraisal this year. The revenue- neutral tax rate (“RNTR”) for all Southern Shores property, according to Mr. Haskett and Ms. Swain, is 0.1958, or 19.58 cents per $100 of property value.

When a reappraisal occurs, N.C. law requires a municipal budget officer to calculate the RNTR, which it defines as “the rate that is estimated to produce revenue for the next fiscal year equal to the revenue that would have been produced for the next fiscal year by the current tax rate if no reappraisal had occurred.” (N.C. law. (Gen. Stat. sec. 159-11(e))

Although N.C. law requires a budget officer to include a statement of the RNTR in the next year’s budget, it does not require a governing board—the Southern Shores Town Council—to adopt it.

If the Town Council keeps the current tax rate of 0.22 (22 cents per $100 value), Mr. Haskett and Ms. Swain say in their memo, revenues would increase by $379,013—enough to wipe out the projected shortfall.

This would mean that our taxes would constitute 56 percent of all revenues. That does not sit well with us.

It also does not sit well with us that the Town staff has not provided an accounting of the funds currently in the undesignated fund balance. How much money is in reserve above the minimum $1.75 million that must be maintained?

The Council freely dips into this fund during a fiscal year by approving budget amendments. An amended fiscal-year budget can look very different from an adopted fiscal-year budget.

How will the Town Council make up the anticipated budgetary shortfall?

Will it increase real-property taxes on property owners, both resident and non-resident, who are already suffering financially because of the pandemic?

Will it halt or reduce all non-essential capital projects and all other non-essential costs? There currently is $662,340 budgeted for FY 2020-21 infrastructure projects.

Or will it simply cover the deficit with unassigned funds?

What philosophy and outlook will it embrace? What foresight will these five people show?

And, finally, the $64,000 question: Will the Town Council approve a much-discussed and much-disputed, exorbitant beach-nourishment project ($14-$17 million) that will be paid for in significant part by increasing property owners’ taxes, starting next year? The financial data for four beach-nourishment plan options are in the meeting packet.

Town Councilman Jim Conners said at the last Council meeting that, during budget deliberations, he would have the word austere “imprinted on my brain.” We hope so.

We support austerity. We also believe in preparing for the worst-case scenario, not the best-case scenario. We believe it is better to be frugal and not caught by surprise.

We support holding the line on taxes, cutting all nonessentials,  and postponing the Town’s “wish-list” of additional budgetary items that are enumerated in the agenda—the chief one being beach nourishment of the entire town coastline.

Our beaches are, and have been for many years, stable. A minimum of a year’s delay on this decision will not hurt. It will help taxpayers and save the Town money.

(The $35,000 budgeted for DEC Associates, the beach-nourishment financial consultants, is an obvious immediate savings, and it’s not the only one.)

Please tell your elected officials what you think. Please ensure that our government is a representative one. Send your three-minute comments to Town Clerk Sheila Kane at skane@southernshores-nc.gov.

Ann G. Sjoerdsma, 4/20/20

I have taken some heat lately from loyal local readers who believe I have “aligned” myself with non-resident property owners and realtors against the interests of their continued health, safety, and welfare.

I cannot control the way people think, but I can say that I have no “side” in any conflict that may exist between Outer Banks resident property owners and non-resident property owners except the one that supports reason, science, reality, and the dissemination of information.

Non-resident property owners make up a large segment of The Beacon’s readership, and I am cognizant of giving them news that they can use to make informed decisions—in much the same way as I seek to empower locals with reliable information.

Non-resident property owners also make up a large segment of the Outer Banks community. Our coastal community, as we know it, would not exist without non-resident property owners. That’s a simple reality.

I believe it is a mistake to regard non-resident property owners as barbarians at the gates who potentially bring disease with them, rather than as good neighbors who will work with us to continue our successful mitigation efforts.

Those who do not choose to work with us in preserving and protecting the health/safety/welfare of Outer Bankers should face serious legal consequences.

If I had been on the Dare County Control Group a month ago, I would not have been so quick to bar non-resident property owners from access. I do not see the Control Group’s decision as a tough one, but as a “light-switch” easy one. Black-and-white. I am inclined toward more nuanced thinking and problem-solving.

If I had been persuaded, however, by both the scientific evidence and recommendations by credible public-health officials that a temporary ban was advisable, I would have at least given non-residents a weekend’s notice so that they could make plans. The County could have asked all non-resident property owners who arrived over the weekend of March 20-22 to self-quarantine for two weeks, as other jurisdictions nationwide have done.

The County also could have made mandatory protective measures such as social distancing, wearing face coverings in public spaces, limiting the size of group gatherings, etc., etc.

We locals seem to be living in a magical castle now, and the Currituck Sound is our moat, but sooner or later, the drawbridge must be lowered. The operative questions for all concerned are when and how?

THE VIRUS IS ‘OUT THERE’

I think of what appears to be our safe Outer Banks environment—even though we know the new coronavirus, SARS CoV-2, is “out there”—as a bubble or a cocoon. I am astonished by the number of people who do not cover their faces in stores and who are out and about, doing goodness knows what.

I also think it is a mistake to analogize the COVID-19 pandemic to a hurricane, which inevitably passes, and to think of non-resident property owners as having been evacuated, although I support a staged reentry that would allow non-resident property owners access before visitors when the restrictions are lifted.

I see the task before the Dare County Control Group now as figuring out how to reunite the Outer Banks community without endangering the people who are already here.

I do not think the reunification has anything to do with who pays how much in property taxes, how much rental income may be lost, or even about someone’s right to travel. It is, and always will be, about public health.

This new SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) coronavirus is not going to “miraculously disappear,” as President Trump incorrectly informed the public some weeks ago, much to his real scientific advisers’ chagrin.

That description might be applied to the coronavirus strain that caused the SARS epidemic of 2002-04, which killed 774 people, mostly in China and Hong Kong, but the reality is that intensive contact tracing and case isolation likely contained the spread of SARS CoV-1.

The transmissibility of SARS CoV-2 is far different from the transmissibility of the earlier strain. It is much more aggressive and insidious. It is highly contagious.

Dr. Anthony S. Fauci of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases has made this point on numerous occasions. Just last Thursday, he reportedly told Fox News host Laura Ingraham during an interview: “[T]he degree of efficiency, of transmissibility of this is really unprecedented in anything that I’ve seen. It’s an extraordinarily efficient virus in transmitting from one person to another. Those kinds of viruses don’t just disappear.”

SARS CoV-2 is what a background source of mine, who formerly served as chief of the Bureau of Drugs at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and maintains high-level contacts there, calls “a wily opponent.”

It is both wily and unpredictable.

THE POST-ACUTE PHASE OF COVID-19

I contacted Southern Shores Realty Co. for comment last week, and I published owner Mike Stone’s letter to SSR’s homeowners about realtors’ discussions with the Dare County Control Group, because I believe people should know how the predominant rental company in Southern Shores is operating during the COVID-19 emergency and how it views the upcoming summer rental season. This is what I consider important public information.

We have no investigative reporters on the Outer Banks. If we did, we might already have had the benefit of articles written about the viewpoints of a sampling of rental property companies, as well as restaurant owners and other businesspeople affected by the COVID-19 restrictions, and we definitely would have more accountability from the Dare County Control Group than just videotaped messages from its chairman, Bob Woodward.

(It appears that today’s Dare County Emergency Management bulletin is a message from Mr. Woodard that was posted yesterday. See https://www.darenc.com/departments/health-human-services/coronavirus.)

What passes as news in our local media is mostly what public-information staff for government officials print in press releases.

If I could investigate, I would most want to speak with local, state, and national public-health officials, as well as prominent scientists, such as Dr. Fauci, about what we can expect in the post-acute phase of COVID-19.

Once the acute phase of this severe respiratory disease subsides, that is where we will be, and we need to plan for that. Anyone who thinks we will simply pick up where we left off in February is sadly mistaken.

In an editorial published online yesterday by the Journal of the American Medical Assn. (“JAMA”), two physicians write:

“It is impossible to know exactly what the future pattern of COVID-19 disease activity might be, because it seems that the only predictable aspect of this pandemic is that it has been unpredictable. For instance, it is unknown whether there will be substantially less disease over the coming months, or whether a second wave of pervasive severe disease will emerge.”

The authors—one of whom specializes in emergency and preventive medicine—go on to say that as “more reliable data and evidence from the acute phase of the pandemic” become available, it may be possible to provide “some insights about the future potential consequences of COVID-19” for the nation’s health-care system.

See “COVID-19: Looking Beyond Tomorrow for Health Care and Society” at https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2764952

Another recent editorial in the JAMA identifies the fall of 2020 as a “key milestone.”

These physician-scientists, one of whom is at the prestigious Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, write:

“If the initial social distancing and perhaps warmer temperatures reduce the scale of the outbreak this summer, there is a major risk of a resurgence during the traditional season of respiratory viruses.”

They recommend that the United States suspend the first year of medical school for one year and give the incoming 20,000 medical students the opportunity to join a national service program for public health that would begin with their receiving training in July on infectious disease epidemiology, outbreak response, etc., so that by August, they could deploy to state and local public-health departments to support a “test, trace, track, and quarantine strategy.”

See “A Bold Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Medical Students, National Service, and Public Health,” at https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2764427

You also may be interested in a Jan. 23, 2020 JAMA article that Dr. Fauci co-authored, titled “Coronavirus Infections: More Than Just the Common Cold,” available at https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2759815.

THE ‘NEW NORMAL’ AFTER THE SURGE

Governor Roy Cooper talked broadly last week about testing, tracing, and trends in the post-acute phase. He gave the outline of a plan, but no details.

How exactly will statewide testing and tracing occur after restrictions are lifted so that we all can be protected—both residents and non-residents alike?

Will we have throughout North Carolina, as well as in Dare County, the public-health infrastructure, personnel, and the supplies that we need to do it properly?

I am eager to know more.

In yet another JAMA editorial, two infectious disease specialists, one at Harvard, the other at Emory, discuss how the United States can safely resume “normal activities.”

“In the absence of a breakthrough treatment or vaccine,” they write, “the U.S. must navigate from mitigation back to containment, using the brute-force strategies effectively mobilized by South Korea.”

First, they say, “density must be limited.” The areas in the United States that have been most affected by the disease share in common either having dense urban conditions or temporarily dense population influxes—such as Mardi Gras in New Orleans, or the usual influx of vacationers to the Outer Banks in the summertime.

Decision-makers, such as the Dare County Control Group, must consider the risk of “large gatherings, festivals, conferences, and sporting events” when they determine how to proceed, they write. Businesses and health-care settings should work out schedules that limit crowding, and retailers should consider [continuing] limits of their store occupancy.

“[T]he immediate future of restaurant dining,” these experts write, “is unclear.”

Questions: How many people should be allowed to occupy a rental dwelling at one time or to congregate in close proximity on the beach?

The authors describe “massive testing” as the “cornerstone” of the post-acute phase, both testing of antibodies and of active disease.

I find what these authors say about the second form of testing quite instructive. They give me a sense of the details that Governor Cooper has not offered yet.

“These [active disease] tests,” the physicians write, “must be easy to perform, quick to result, readily and equitably available outside of the health care setting, and inexpensive. Testing must be immediately accessible to anyone with any symptom suggestive of COVID-19, such as headache, fever, runny nose, cough, shortness of breath, diarrhea, malaise, or anosmia [which is the loss of smell].

“Furthermore, because asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission is important, additional wide-scale intermittent testing (e.g., weekly) of asymptomatic persons also may be required, particularly for individuals with significant exposure to others, such as athletes, teachers, service industry employees (e.g., in retail and maintenance), and health-care workers. Strategies such as home testing should be aggressively pursued to allow people to self-test whenever necessary.”

I would like to know how feasible home testing is, and, if it is feasible, how far away we are from having such testing available.

Of course, once people are identified with COVID-19, the authors write, they “must be immediately informed, educated, isolated, and then their contacts efficiently identified” and, in order to achieve effective control, “quarantined within 24 hours.”

The authors also discuss attending to the most vulnerable populations and investing in national public-health infrastructure, plans, measures, and supplies. They suggest an investment of $5 billion would be required.

See “From Mitigation to Containment of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Putting the SARS-CoV-2 Genie Back in the Bottle” at https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2764956

In his interview with Fox’s Laura Ingraham, Dr. Fauci said again, as he has many times before, that the COVID-19 threat is “not going to be over to the point of our being able to not do any mitigation until we have a scientifically sound, safe and effective vaccine.”

While the Dare County Control Group waits to see how Governor Cooper will gradually “reopen” the state, it should be conferring with public-health and scientific experts now about how to prevent an increase in COVID-19 cases on the Outer Banks when people start arriving. Members should be educating themselves and doing what they can to help the local health-care system and the population prepare.

There is not going to be a return to business as usual. The mitigation steps that the Control Group leaves or puts in place will be critical to our immediate future.

DRUGS IN THE PIPELINE

Just as a postscript, I would like to note that my FDA source has said that he is “not optimistic that any of the drugs now being tested will prove to be dramatically effective against COVID-19. Certainly hydroxychloroquine is not.”

“To be really useful,” according to my source, who was a trusted associate of my late drug-czar father (about whom I have written), “any new drug has got to reduce mortality and/or the number of people who need the ICU, and that should be easy to determine in well controlled short-term trials.”

If you would like to read the latest about therapeutic drug trials, see:

The NIH: https://www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/coronaviruses

The CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/therapeutic-options.html

Reports I read in medical journals, particularly The New England Journal of Medicine, indicate that the most promising therapeutic trials have occurred with Gilead Sciences’ antiviral drug, remdesivir, which has been used to fight the Ebola virus. All data on its effectiveness so far are limited and preliminary, however.

Have a good Sunday, everyone.

Ann G. Sjoerdsma, 4/18/20

Governor Roy Cooper announced today a partnership with three of the state’s medical universities to increase testing and tracing in North Carolina, according to a report this afternoon by The Raleigh News and Observer.

The University of North Carolina, East Carolina University, and Duke University have joined a statewide research project designed to learn more about the percentage of North Carolina residents who have COVID-19 and are asymptomatic and, generally, “to better understand the true number of COVID-19 infections in our state,” the Governor said at a news conference.

North Carolina has four medical schools. The fourth is at Wake Forest University in Winston-Salem.

Governor Cooper also emphasized at his conference the need for more help from the federal government with testing and personal protective equipment, The News and Observer reported. (Note: All coronavirus reporting by The News and Observer is available free.)

The Governor spoke of “global supply chain breakdowns” that compel the federal government to “help more” than it has.

So far, the state has conducted about 73,000 COVID-19 tests, according to the N.C. Dept. of Health and Human Services (NCDHHS)—a number that accounts for much less than 1 percent of North Carolina’s total population.

North Carolina, which is the ninth most populous state in the country, has about 10.5 million people.

Contrary to a University of Washington model that estimated the heaviest outbreak of COVID-19 cases in North Carolina would come this week, public-health experts now believe the peak could come as late as mid-May.

The NCDHHS reported today 394 more confirmed COVID-19 cases in the state over yesterday’s total. The largest one-day surge in cases statewide was reportedly 404 cases on April 11.

The acute phase of this respiratory disease will subside, but there is great uncertainty about what the post-acute phase will look like and whether a resurgence is likely.

More than 630,000 people filed for unemployment insurance in the past month, according to the N.C. Division of Employment Security, which plans to triple its staff to 1,600 in order to process the claims.

LOCALLY, DARE COUNTY continues a nearly weeklong trend of reporting no new COVID-19 cases.

See Dare Emergency Management Bulletin No. 45: https://www.darenc.com/Home/Components/News/News/6155/1483.

THIS JUST IN (at 5 p.m.):

DARE COUNTY BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS CHAIRMAN BOB WOODARD, who is also the chair of the Dare County Control Group, addresses the public on the eve of the fourth weekend of Stay Home-Stay Healthy order. Access the videotape at:

https://www.darenc.com/Home/Components/News/News/6160/398

Ann G. Sjoerdsma, 4/17/20

With no increase in the number of positive COVID-19 cases in Dare County, today’s COVID-19 emergency bulletin focuses on lifting the County’s entry restrictions.

“When implemented,” Bulletin No. 44 states, “it is likely that a staged entry process will be implemented to allow non-resident property owners entry before allowing entry to visitors.”

(See The Beacon’s 4/15/20 posts on this subject for more information.)

To access the bulletin, go to https://www.darenc.com/Home/Components/News/News/6147/1483

Both Governor Cooper’s Stay-at-Home order and Dare County’s Stay Home-Stay Healthy order are effective through April 29, at which time they can be continued, modified, or rescinded.

“As April 29 approaches,” Bulletin No. 44 states, “the Control Group will continue to have serious discussions about ways to most effectively balance the health of our community [with] the economic impacts, in order to make decisions that are in the best interest of all. Local officials have begun those discussions regarding the timeline for entry to the County.”

It continues: “As decisions on entry are made, consideration is being given to the Governor’s actions regarding the state’s Stay at Home order, the scientific data including trends and models that are frequently changing, the capacity of local health providers, and the ability of local merchants to provide essential goods and services.”

Not surprisingly, Dare County is aligning with the state and looking to Governor Roy Cooper for guidance. (See The Beacon’s column from earlier today about the Governor’s path to reopening North Carolina.)

One Southern Shores Town Council member told The Beacon this morning that Council members are being “inundated” with emails from non-resident property owners, who have been barred entry to Dare County since 10 p.m. on March 19.

Mayor Tom Bennett, along with all other town mayors, is a member of the Dare County Control Group, which is chaired by Bob Woodard, chairperson of the Dare County Board of Commissioners.

The bulletin also reports that two more Dare County residents who tested positive for COVID-19 have recovered or are asymptomatically cleared, bringing that total to 13. One person who tested positive never had symptoms, and the 15^th person died.

2020 CENSUS: Dare continues to encourage residents who have not responded to the U.S. Census questionnaire to complete the form online at my2020census.gov, using your physical street address, or to call 1-844-330-2020 (English) or 1-844-468-2020 (Spanish).   

Ann G. Sjoerdsma, 4/16/20

The draft fiscal year 2020-21 budget that the Town Council will consider at its workshop session next Tuesday is unbalanced, showing a shortfall in projected revenues over projected expenses during an uncertain financial time of about $350,000.

Projected revenues for next year are $5,953,243, and expenses are $6,302,096.

For the proposed FY 2020-21 budget, see pages of: 3-17 of the April 21 budget workshop packet: https://www.southernshores-nc.gov/

Interim Town Manager/Budget Officer Wes Haskett and Finance Officer Bonnie Swain have submitted a budget with “minimal increases” in expenses to “keep services running at the current level,” they write in a memorandum to the Town Council, and have reduced revenues in occupancy taxes (by an overall 20 percent); sales taxes (5 percent); and land- transfer taxes (2.5 percent).

The projected occupancy-tax revenue assumes receipts in July of 50 percent of last July’s receipts; 30 percent in August, 20 percent in September, and 10 percent in October, according to the memorandum. The two staff members assume all other occupancy-tax receipts will be “flat as compared to last year’s numbers.”

They are also assuming that “travel patterns will return to normal.”

Mr. Haskett and Ms. Swain project a slight increase in real-estate property (aka ad valorem) tax revenue, based on a revenue neutral tax rate (RNTR) of 0.1958, which towns are required by state law to calculate, but not adopt, after a countywide property reappraisal like the one Dare just performed.

The Town’s current tax rate is 0.22, or 22 cents per $100 of property value.

For an explanation about the confusing RNTR, see: https://canons.sog.unc.edu/the-revenue-neutral-tax-rate/

Rather than recommend to the Town Council a preliminary budget that is balanced, Mr. Haskett apparently has left to the Council the tough decision-making about how that can be achieved. In the joint memorandum, he offers the following options:

• Cutting expenditures/services
• Using monies from the Town’s unassigned fund balance
• Increasing taxes (by keeping the current 0.22 tax rate)
• Using a combination of the above three options

The current balance in the undesignated fund balance, which was depleted in this fiscal year by $1,406,411–some of which will be reimbursed by grant money–is not indicated in the memo.

North Carolina town managers are tasked by state law with preparing and submitting the budget and capital program to a town council. (See N.C. General Statutes 160A-148(5)). They are in the best position to analyze and consider carefully all departmental requests. A town council serves only in an advisory role, offering guidance.

The Beacon believes that Mr. Haskett should have dug deeper for cuts in expenses, not only to balance the budget now as he and Ms. Swain have projected it, but to anticipate further revenue reductions. We believe Mr. Haskett should be suggesting potential cost-saving measures—per a town manager’s budgetary duty and power—and we can readily offer some obvious ones:

1) Asking all department heads to cut their budgets by a mandatory 10 to 15 percent;

2) Eliminating all external contracts (engineering, beach nourishment studies, etc.);

3) Reducing or eliminating capital expenditures.

Employee salary cuts should be considered, too, in case the local economy fares far worse than currently anticipated.

We also believe the timing of this draft budget is unfortunate. In a month, we will know much more about what the “new normal” in North Carolina will look like and how the tourism and construction industries will be affected. The Town can be flexible in the next two months about when it workshops the budget; when Mr. Haskett submits a balanced budget; and when the public hearing on the proposed balanced budget is held.

The usual budgetary deadlines need not be rigidly observed, as long as an FY 2020-21 budget is approved by June 30 and the public has had an opportunity to be heard.

THE GOVERNOR’S PLAN: TESTING, TRACING, TRENDS

Governor Roy Cooper started discussing life in North Carolina after COVID-19-related restrictions are lifted yesterday at a news conference at the state’s Emergency Operations Center in Raleigh.

“This virus is going to be with us until there is a vaccine, which may be a year or more away,” the Governor said, cautiously. “That means as we ease restrictions, we are going to enter a new normal.”

Governor Cooper seeks to ensure that when people go back to work, and businesses and schools reopen, public-health measures are still in place to protect the most vulnerable people. He is cognizant of guarding against a spike in COVID-19 cases that could overwhelm hospitals and cause widespread casualties.

“We now need to look ahead at how we stay ahead of the curve,” said Dr. Mandy Cohen, secretary of the N.C. Dept. of Health and Human Services, a chief adviser to the Governor.

The plan that the Governor proposes to initiate gradually consists of three components:

• Widespread testing, so infected people can be identified, isolated, and tracked;
• Aggressive contact tracing, so that people who came in contact with individuals who test positive for COVID-19 can be identified and tested, and, if necessary, isolated and tracked;
• Detection of “trends” that will influence policy decisions.

In order to ease restrictions, there needs to be an increase in testing capabilities over what is currently possible in the state, and more public-health personnel need to be hired in order to do aggressive contact tracing, according to the Governor’s Office.

See press release, “Governor Cooper Shares Path Forward for North Carolina”: https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-cooper-shares-path-forward-north-carolina

By trends, Governor Cooper means data showing changes in the number of new positive COVID-19 test results; the number of COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths; the number of available hospital beds and ICU capacity; and the number of available supplies of personal protective equipment. Any worrisome trends that emerge will have to be addressed by public-health safeguards, such as social distancing, face masks, and limited gatherings.

Invoking the now common light-switch analogy, the Governor said he prefers to use “a dimmer switch that can be adjusted incrementally.”

Until state and county restrictions are gradually lifted, we will not know how the Outer Banks will “trend.”

RECYCLING CONTRACT

Returning to the draft Southern Shores FY 2020-21 budget, we were glad to see that the town has been offered a recycling contract by Recycling & Disposal Solutions (“RSD”) of Virginia with a fixed price of $57.50/ton for processing single-stream recycling with glass; or $49/ton for single stream recycling without glass.

RSD, which operates a materials recovery facility in Portsmouth, is assuming the market risk should the price of commodities drop—which is what Bay Disposal & Recycling should have done, instead of requesting a price hike from the Town Council, when the processing fees it was paying increased.

The Beacon previewed RSD’s proposed contract with Nags Head on 4/14/20, expecting it to be much like the one the recycling company would offer Southern Shores, and it is, with the significant exception of the price. (See pp. 18-48 of the meeting packet.)

RSD’s contract only concerns the disposal of the Town’s curbside recyclables once they arrive at its facility. Bay Disposal would charge the Town separately for collecting the recyclables and hauling them to Portsmouth. As of yesterday, Mr. Haskett did not have a price quote from Joshua Smaltz, who is Outer Banks Site Manager for Bay Disposal.

A big advantage that RSD offers over the previous processing arrangement that Bay Disposal had with a Chesapeake recycling center is that it will handle sorting all recyclables so that any contamination does not adversely affect the Town.

Facing what Nags Head Town Manager Cliff Ogburn believes might be a $1.5 million budgetary shortfall in the next fiscal year, the Nags Head Board of Commissioners, which met yesterday, decided to postpone a decision on its RSD contract until its May 6 meeting. The larger town was not offered a fixed price like Southern Shores was.

The Beacon would like to see the Town Council approve an arrangement with RSD and do some good for the planet, while also supporting the recycling market. If the Council decides to continue to allow Bay Disposal to haul our recyclables to the Wheelabrator incinerator in Portmouth, it will do neither.

The Beacon has lost track of the figures, since the Town Council gave Bay Disposal a price increase to transport the Town’s recyclables to Wheelabrator, but it may be that the arrangement with RDS is also more cost-effective.

ZOOM AND PUBLIC COMMENT

The Town has given notice that next Tuesday’s 9 a.m. budget workshop will be held in the Pitts Center, “utilizing the Zoom platform/app.” Details about who will be present at the Pitts Center would be welcome, but the Town does not provide them. We will never understand why the Town is not more forthcoming with basic information.

We suggest that you do a trial run with Zoom before Tuesday, if you have not used it before. The Town’s instructions, via the link below, might confuse you:

https://www.southernshores-nc.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Southern-Shores-Notice-Electronic-Participation-April-21-2020.pdf

The bottom line is that, once you have downloaded the Zoom software and can join a meeting, all you need to participate in the budget workshop is the meeting ID, which is 952 9642 3158.

You also may listen to the meeting on the telephone. The link above gives telephone numbers that you may use.

You may email public comments to Town Clerk Sheila Kane before the meeting at skane@southernshores-nc.gov, with the subject line, “Public Comment April 21, 2020,” or you may comment live via the chat feature on Zoom.

If you do email your comments, someone will read them into the record on your behalf. The Beacon advises you to be mindful that the person who reads them might be a slow and stumbling reader. You are limited to three minutes, which may be shortened when read by a hesitant reader.

The Beacon will write again about the draft budget before next Tuesday’s workshop.

Ann G. Sjoerdsma, 4/16/20

 

 

Dare County reminds area residents in its COVID-19 bulletin today of a report by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that about 25 percent of patients with the new coronavirus do not show symptoms. Thus, although the County has not received any positive COVID-19 test results during the past three days, that does not that mean that the respiratory illness “is not in our community.”

See Bulletin No. 43: https://www.darenc.com/Home/Components/News/News/6137/1483

COVID-19 Bulletin No. 43 also reports that of the 14 surviving Dare County residents who previously tested positive for COVID-19, 11 have recovered or are asymptomatically cleared, and three are asymptomatic. A 15^th person died.

“Every day,” the bulletin says, “healthcare providers in Dare County are testing individuals they believe are in need of COVID-19 testing and meet the following criteria: fever of 100.4 or higher, cough, and respiratory illness.” Asymptomatic people are not tested unless they are known to have been exposed to an infected person; then they are tested as a part of “contact tracing.”

Dr. Sheila Davies, director of the Dare County Dept. of Health and Human Services, credits the low incidence of COVID-19 in the county to “good public health practice,” including social distancing and proper hand-washing and hygiene. The message of the bulletin is to stay the course and not ease up on mitigation measures now.

ERROR REPEALS SPECIAL BONDS FOR BEACH NOURISHMENT

In other Dare County news, Kirk Ross of The Coastal Review Online reported yesterday that an “error” by the N.C. General Assembly “eliminated a key funding mechanism for beach nourishment and other public projects.”

As Mr. Ross reported, the General Assembly unanimously voted last June to pass Senate Bill 381, which he described as a “rewrite of laws for a handful of state boards and commissions.” Included in the 14-page bill, however, was a single-sentence repeal of Chapter 159I of the N.C. General Statutes, which authorizes municipalities to use special obligations to finance projects in specific categories, including for beach nourishment.

(It is on page six of the bill.) See the article at https://www.coastalreview.org/2020/04/legislative-error-wipes-out-bond-program/

All Dare County beach nourishment to date has been financed in part by special obligation bonds, which do not require a public referendum and allow for very short short-term borrowing.

Senator Mike Woodard, D-Durham, one of the sponsors of SB 381, which took effect July 1, 2019, told the Coastal Review Online that a “repeal of special obligation bonds was not my intent . . . I will work with our local governments to fix this situation when the short session begins.”

The legislature is scheduled to convene April 28.

SOUTHERN SHORES IS CONSIDERING A $14-$16 MILLION COASTLINE NOURISHMENT PROJECT that would be financed through special obligation bonds and Dare County monies. Approval of such a project may finally occur at the Town Council’s budget workshop on April 21.

The Town has preliminarily proposed three “municipal service districts” to fund the debt through varied tax increases—oceanfront property owners would pay the highest tax rate increase—but it has yet to prepare a report that demonstrates and justifies the proposed district boundaries. All it has done is provide financial data, not a coherent report.

For a municipal service district to be designated and the property owners within it to be taxed more than other property owners in the town, N.C. law requires Southern Shores to attest that the proposed district—such as the oceanfront—is in need of beach nourishment to a “demonstrably greater extent than the rest” of the districts in town.

Inasmuch as Southern Shores is a town of rental homes whose occupants visit because of the oceanfront, and the beaches are held in trust for the public and not privately owned, The Beacon questions the districts the Town has proposed. They are based solely on proximity to the oceanfront, not on the “demonstrably greater extent” standard.

It seems more reasonable to The Beacon either to designate two MSDs, one of which starts at the oceanfront and goes west to the year-round neighborhoods in the maritime forest, and the other of which includes the year-round neighborhoods; or to make the town one single district, acknowledging that all property owners benefit equally from a beach nourishment project. There are seasonal rentals in the year-round neighborhoods, too, including airbnb.com rentals.

The layout of Southern Shores does not resemble any of the other beach towns that have secured special-obligation funding and created MSDs. There is a short mile between the ocean and the Currituck Sound in Southern Shores, and vacationer foot traffic from rental homes west of Ocean Boulevard and Duck Road to the oceanfront is heavy and easy to track.

The Town Council should give more consideration to Southern Shores’ uniqueness and not simply apply a one-size-fits-all plan for MSDs that may work for Kill Devil Hills and Nags Head, but not Southern Shores.

The ocean is proximate to most of the homes in Southern Shores, rental and otherwise. The Council needs to think more about the “demonstrably greater than” standard and apply it judiciously to all property in town.

Ann G. Sjoerdsma, 4/15/20

(Dear Readers: I should have made it clear in my earlier post today that I am a client of Southern Shores Realty. My family has used the company as our rental agent since 1971. This afternoon, I received an email from Mike Stone, the owner of SSR, that I would like to share with you. Any words you see in brackets are mine. –Ann)

Dear Southern Shores Realty Homeowners –

4 weeks ago the local county leaders made the decision to restrict access to the Outer Banks. The restrictions were placed in an effort to not overwhelm our limited health care services with impacts from the coronavirus. We are reaching out to you today regarding the impacts to our marketplace.

For Southern Shores Realty, this impact is profound. Our business is based on welcoming visitors to your homes, and our tourism industry is based on customer service. Many of us have chosen to work in this industry based on the experiences we had coming here to enjoy vacation rentals in this idyllic location.

We are here to [look out] for you and to look after your homes while helping guests achieve their vacation dreams. We look forward to your return to your homes and beach. Restricted access and unavailability of homes is counter to our way of life. We want you to be here, joining with us in preparing your homes for the strong rental season that we planned.

Southern Shores Realty has stood strong through many storms, and we are doing our best in navigating this one. We ask you to join us in reaching out to county leaders to be sure they lift the access restrictions, in a manner that allows you to access your homes, and guests can arrive once properties are ready for occupancy. We are prepared to get your house ready for the season if you would prefer to have us take care of it.

Members of our management team have been in contact regularly with the other property management companies on this beach, and attending meetings for local businesses regarding this pandemic. Earlier today a few members of our management team attended a meeting with the Dare County Board of Commissioners Chairman Bob Woodard. Here are some takeaways from today’s meeting:

-The County Commissioners are trying to get us back to normal as soon as possible.

-There is a control group working on a plan for re-opening. A major question is will we have the supplies to do so (restaurants will need 2 weeks to build up food inventory, etc.). They are meeting with suppliers to make sure.

-They are awaiting the Governor’s plan to allow businesses, etc. to re-open. That is out of their control.

-They are looking at a slow entry once the restrictions are lifted.

-The [Dare County] Control Group is open to any suggestions and welcomes our input. An advisory committee of local businesses has formed to represent different needs to be addressed in the plan to re-open this area.

We have loved receiving the outpouring of support from owners who know the struggles we are facing and see that we are all in this together as none of us [is] untouched by the impacts. Your patience and understanding strengthen us.

At the same time, we understand the frustration we are hearing from others, who want the access restrictions currently in place from Dare and Currituck County lifted. We hear your concerns and understand fully the economic impacts and hardships, as well as the loss of good will from some locals on social media. To be clear, Southern Shores Realty supports you. We see the difficulties you are experiencing, and we are following the local and NCREC [N.C. Real Estate Comm.] guidelines in doing all we can, within the law, to best serve you.

For every week that has gone by where guests were unable to access their vacation rentals due to Dare County and Currituck County current access restrictions, Southern Shores Realty is joining you in fully refunding the guests. We are continuing to do so each week that goes by in accordance with the guidelines set forth by the NC Real Estate Commission and other state authorities.

Our reservationists are continuing to take both the kind and the angry phone calls from guests. It is not easy to be on the receiving end of the angry, scared and frightened phone calls. Our reservationists are truly exemplary, as they listen to the concerns of the guests and work toward solutions. They explain that we cannot refund July reservations today because we do not know if access restrictions will be lifted then. The reservationists are working with the callers individually offering options that are in line with our cancellation policies. The reservationists are reminding guests that you, the property owners, have had to return funds to visitors, funds that you use to pay the mortgages, the high cost of insurance, the maintenance costs, etc. on your beach homes. Our reservationists focus first on moving guests to later dates, to minimize the financial losses we are both taking in this crisis.

The reservationists are also encouraging guests who have experienced job loss, pay cuts, illness in the family, etc. to reach out to their travel insurance provider. The insurance providers are adjusting their statements as the impacts change.

Please know that we are here, working hard for you. To stay in line with social distancing guidelines, some of us have changed our hours, others are working from home. While some of us are working from the offices, our offices are locked and visitors can call us should they need access to the building or staff members. We welcome your input, feel free to call with questions or concerns.

We are your partner, and we thank you for your continued patience and understanding. We look forward to seeing you here at the beach!

Sincerely,

Mike Stone and
The Staff of Southern Shores Realty

Patrina Chappelle, rental manager at Southern Shores Realty, advises non-resident property owners to email Dare County officials, asking them to “stagger” reentry to the county after access restrictions are lifted “like you do for a hurricane evacuation order”—with non-resident homeowners being given priority over visitors.

Non-resident property owners need time, Ms. Chappelle explained, “to be able to prep and get their homes ready”—or “as ready as possible,” considering the loss of weeks they would usually spend doing spring cleaning, maintenance, repairs, shopping for supplies, etc., etc.

It’s a long list. I know from experience.

Southern Shores Realty (“SSR”) is a rental agent for more than 400 properties, the majority located in Southern Shores. Ms. Chappelle herself is a resident of Chicahauk.

In a telephone conversation yesterday with The Beacon, Ms. Chappelle said that SSR is viewing the current shut-down situation “a week at a time.” Refunds to renters who cannot access Dare County and do not choose to book a later vacation time are being processed on that basis.

So, if the visitor entry restriction is lifted on May 16, for example, renters who have booked the vacation week of May 23-30 can take occupancy, regardless of the condition of the house they will occupy.

“We would ask them to please bear with us,” Ms. Chappelle said, just like after a hurricane evacuation, and to report any problems with the rental property.

Governor Cooper’s stay-at-home order is in effect until April 30, but he has already given indications in public remarks that he may extend the order to mid-May.

The number of COVID-19 cases in North Carolina during the past 24 hours grew by fewer than 100, according to the N.C. Dept. of Health and Human Services, marking the first time in a week that the increase was not in the triple digits.

NCDHHS watches the “doubling rate,” which is how quickly the total number of COVID-19 cases statewide doubles. N.C. public-health officials believe the rate is slowing in large part because of the stay-at-home guidelines that are in place.

The peak case count in North Carolina has been projected to be around April 23.

Whatever occurs, Ms. Chappelle said she and the SSR staff, who are working fewer hours and often from home, are doing their best to be on top of a “fluid situation” that is likely to leave them scrambling at the last minute to prepare houses for renters.

SSR has expressed its “concerns,” she said, about the pressure-filled situation the company will be in once the entry restrictions are rescinded to the Dare County Control Group, which is chaired by Bob Woodard, chairperson of the Dare County Board of Commissioners.

Ms. Chappelle suggests that non-resident property owners email Mr. Woodard and/or Dare County Manager Bobby Outten about receiving a priority reentry.

The Beacon notes further that the mayors of all Dare County towns are members of the Control Group. You may reach Southern Shores Mayor Tom Bennett at tbennett@southernshores-nc.gov.

ON A PERSONAL NOTE, I would like to express my empathy for non-resident rental-property owners, who undergo anxiety enough during the spring reopening crush without having to contend with being barred from the county.

As a local homeowner who also owns one rental home, and manages another that I own with (non-resident) family, I appreciate both “sides” of the entry restriction, but I believe, as time passes, that the scales of justice tilt more in favor of the non-resident rental-property owners, who drive the Dare County economy.

They are essential workers on the Outer Banks.

I am less supportive of non-resident owners who use their properties exclusively as second homes. Unless they live in Nebraska, Arkansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, or Iowa, they are living in states whose governors have imposed stay-at-home orders that I believe they should observe. We are all experiencing a national emergency.

Unfortunately, the reality is that we may be dealing with this new coronavirus for at least another two years, until a vaccine is developed and distributed. We are likely to be subject to intermittent social-distancing advisories and will need to rely on mitigation efforts, not containment by exclusion.

My first rental is not until May 23 (hence my hypothetical) because I have scaled back my summer season, and I am here to arrange repairs and maintenance, to purchase furniture and needed supplies, and to do the myriad other tasks that are required to prepare a rental for the season; but I am still anxious. And all I have is a modest three-bedroom beach box with no bells and whistles, like so many Southern Shores rental homeowners offer.

The uncertainty of this summer season, and the possible loss of anticipated income, can generate feelings of unease and tension in the coolest of rental property owners. I am not sure how well our elected officials understand this.

66 APPLICANTS FOR TOWN MANAGER’S JOB

In a late post yesterday, The Beacon reported that 66 applicants, from 19 states, have applied for the position of Southern Shores town manager, according to search consultant Ellis Hankins of The Mercer Group in Raleigh.

The number of applications exceeds the projection that Mr. Hankins gave the Town Council in February of 40 to 50 applicants. We believe this success is a testament to Mr. Hankins’s considerable expertise, as well as to the appeal of Southern Shores.

“The Town Council has a good number of very well-qualified candidates to consider at their meeting on April 20,” Mr. Hankins told The Beacon.

We will be eager to learn from the Town Council generally—without it violating confidentiality—about the search progress that it makes in Monday’s closed session.

Ann G. Sjoerdsma, 4/15/20